Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 20.201572 23.478440 27.400269 32.525631 39.180994 47.731505 59.903483
2025-02-09 15.657471 19.287447 24.044647 30.971570 41.249095 56.792820 84.137496
2025-02-16 13.887456 17.824442 23.335319 32.054908 46.494729 71.790405 127.022693
2025-02-23 12.357659 16.317784 22.124742 31.892419 49.511801 84.432810 178.013872
2025-03-02 11.198041 15.123382 21.098931 31.675367 52.228604 97.926803 249.753997
2025-03-09 10.404345 14.344019 20.553283 32.090944 56.237066 116.904237 378.726686
2025-03-16 9.465545 13.219998 19.269444 30.871571 56.396204 126.379773 500.437144
2025-03-23 8.865473 12.561354 18.665520 30.803509 59.124473 145.681309 775.148229
2025-03-30 8.125268 11.603557 17.427187 29.244247 57.764564 150.834209 990.399038
2025-04-06 7.441379 10.683754 16.163004 27.437140 55.297433 150.611043 1173.024899
2025-04-13 6.897715 9.958080 15.179884 26.082244 53.708475 153.225242 1470.795947
2025-04-20 7.057557 10.422935 16.399769 29.675637 67.249019 240.482469 11573.277424
2025-04-27 6.908705 10.362504 16.668628 31.308233 76.336403 332.715920 NaN
2025-05-04 6.435225 9.694251 15.691339 29.790579 74.234249 344.901093 NaN
2025-05-11 6.264073 9.552084 15.737420 30.815822 81.909283 467.422375 NaN
2025-05-18 5.997102 9.214629 15.351685 30.662318 85.077046 565.324162 NaN
2025-05-25 5.749706 8.895445 14.971670 30.457364 88.036443 685.647029 NaN
2025-06-01 5.572991 8.694936 14.819524 30.849753 94.014006 920.926794 NaN
2025-06-08 5.287635 8.272405 14.157728 29.698036 92.144825 982.833979 NaN
2025-06-15 5.107883 8.039913 13.886905 29.633715 95.804875 1262.444158 NaN
2025-06-22 4.835681 7.616742 13.169842 28.159167 91.476905 1237.687449 NaN
2025-06-29 4.561646 7.179268 12.398116 26.447758 85.434245 1120.741648 NaN
2025-07-06 4.334239 6.823064 11.787418 25.162809 81.423374 1078.186728 NaN